Distribution regression in R

Author

Vincent Arel-Bundock

Published

March 4, 2023

This notebook introduces “Distribution Regression”, an alternative to quantile regression which can be used to explore treatment effect heterogeneity.

Warning: This notebook is not authoritative. These are essentially reading/coding notes, written as I was trying to figure this stuff out for myself. Please report mistakes and send me your comments.

Case study: restaurant inspections

To illustrate, we will use the restaurant inspections data used in Huntington-Klein (2022). These data are available in the causaldata package for R, or in the Rdatasets archive.

library(ggplot2)
library(marginaleffects)
library(modelsummary)
`modelsummary` 2.0.0 now uses `tinytable` as its default table-drawing
  backend. Learn more at: https://vincentarelbundock.github.io/tinytable/

Revert to `kableExtra` for one session:

  options(modelsummary_factory_default = 'kableExtra')
  options(modelsummary_factory_latex = 'kableExtra')
  options(modelsummary_factory_html = 'kableExtra')

Silence this message forever:

  config_modelsummary(startup_message = FALSE)
dat <- read.csv("https://vincentarelbundock.github.io/Rdatasets/csv/causaldata/restaurant_inspections.csv")
head(dat)
  rownames            business_name inspection_score Year NumberofLocations
1        1            MCGINLEYS PUB               94 2017                 9
2        2           VILLAGE INN #1               86 2015                66
3        3           RONNIE SUSHI 2               80 2016                79
4        4 FRED MEYER - RETAIL FISH               96 2003                86
5        5                PHO GRILL               83 2017                53
6        6             TACO KING #2               95 2008                89
  Weekend
1   FALSE
2   FALSE
3   FALSE
4   FALSE
5   FALSE
6   FALSE

Our goal is to check if there is a difference in the inspection scores when the inspection is conducted on a weekday or during the weekend, controlling for the year of inspection and the number of locations in the restaurant chain.

A first step can be to plot the empirical cumulative distribution function for those two groups:

ggplot(dat, aes(inspection_score, color = Weekend)) + stat_ecdf()
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The graph above suggests that restaurants inspected during the weekend tend to obtain higher scores than restaurants inspected during the week.

To see if this holds after controlling for observables we estimate a linear regression model with an interaction term to allow the coefficients on year and number of locations to vary between weekdays and weekends:

mod <- lm(inspection_score ~ Weekend * (Year + NumberofLocations), data = dat)
modelsummary(mod)
(1)
(Intercept) 225.651
(12.472)
WeekendTRUE -55.462
(130.256)
Year -0.065
(0.006)
NumberofLocations -0.019
(0.000)
WeekendTRUE × Year 0.028
(0.065)
WeekendTRUE × NumberofLocations -0.009
(0.008)
Num.Obs. 27178
R2 0.069
R2 Adj. 0.069
AIC 174873.7
BIC 174931.2
Log.Lik. -87429.866
F 401.830
RMSE 6.04

Average predictions and contrasts

The interactions make this model a bit difficult to interpret. Using the marginaleffects package, we can easily compute more meaningful quantities.

To begin, we estimate average predicted scores for restaurants inspected, by subgroups of our variable of interest:

avg_predictions(mod, by = "Weekend")

 Weekend Estimate Std. Error    z Pr(>|z|)   S 2.5 % 97.5 %
   FALSE     93.6     0.0368 2546   <0.001 Inf  93.6   93.7
    TRUE     95.7     0.4167  230   <0.001 Inf  94.9   96.5

Columns: Weekend, estimate, std.error, statistic, p.value, s.value, conf.low, conf.high 
Type:  response 

Under the hood, avg_predictions() computed the predicted value for each of the observations in the original dataset, and took the average by subgroup. The difference between the predictions in the two rows above represents the combination of two phenomena: the conditional association between Weekend and inspection_score, but also the fact that the distribution of covariates is different for restaurants inspected during weekdays or weekends. This is analogous to what Chernozhukov, Fernández-Val, and Melly (2013) call the “structural” and the “compositional” effects.

An alternative approach is to compute average counterfactual predictions. We proceed in 3 steps:

  1. Replicate the full dataset twice, setting Weekend=0 in the first dataset and Weekend=1 in the second, while holding all other covariates at their original values.
  2. Estimate predicted outcomes in both datasets.
  3. Report the means in each dataset.

To do this, we can simply add a variables argument to the previous call:

avg_predictions(mod, variables = "Weekend", by = "Weekend")

 Weekend Estimate Std. Error    z Pr(>|z|)   S 2.5 % 97.5 %
   FALSE     93.6     0.0368 2546   <0.001 Inf  93.6   93.7
    TRUE     94.8     0.4977  190   <0.001 Inf  93.8   95.8

Columns: Weekend, estimate, std.error, statistic, p.value, s.value, conf.low, conf.high 
Type:  response 

Notice that the average counterfactual predictions are slightly different from our initial estimates. This is because we have now marginalized over exactly the same distribution of covariates in the weekday and weekend counterfactual groups.

We can compute these average predictions:

avg_predictions(mod,
  variables = "Weekend",
  by = "Weekend",
  hypothesis = "revpairwise")

         Term Estimate Std. Error    z Pr(>|z|)   S 2.5 % 97.5 %
 TRUE - FALSE     1.18      0.499 2.37    0.018 5.8 0.202   2.16

Columns: term, estimate, std.error, statistic, p.value, s.value, conf.low, conf.high 
Type:  response 

Equivalently,

avg_comparisons(mod, variables = "Weekend")

    Term                 Contrast Estimate Std. Error    z Pr(>|z|)   S 2.5 %
 Weekend mean(TRUE) - mean(FALSE)     1.18      0.499 2.36    0.018 5.8 0.202
 97.5 %
   2.16

Columns: term, contrast, estimate, std.error, statistic, p.value, s.value, conf.low, conf.high, predicted_lo, predicted_hi, predicted 
Type:  response 

Regression on a quantile of the outcome

Above, we provided one-number summaries with a single focus on the mean. But instead of modelling the outcome on its natural scale, we could model the probability that the outcome for a given observation lies below some quantile threshold. For example, the 30th percentile of inspection_score is:

qtile <- quantile(dat$inspection_score, prob = .30)
qtile
30% 
 91 

We can predict the probability that any given observation will fall below that threshold using a logit model:

mod <- glm(inspection_score < qtile ~ Weekend * (Year + NumberofLocations), data = dat, family = binomial)
modelsummary(mod)
(1)
(Intercept) -35.138
(4.806)
WeekendTRUE -41.335
(72.576)
Year 0.017
(0.002)
NumberofLocations 0.006
(0.000)
WeekendTRUE × Year 0.020
(0.036)
WeekendTRUE × NumberofLocations 0.017
(0.007)
Num.Obs. 27178
AIC 30590.4
BIC 30639.7
F 174.844
RMSE 0.43
predictions(mod)

 Estimate Pr(>|z|)   S 2.5 % 97.5 %
    0.231   <0.001 Inf 0.223  0.239
    0.286   <0.001 Inf 0.279  0.293
    0.305   <0.001 Inf 0.297  0.314
    0.269   <0.001 Inf 0.260  0.278
    0.278   <0.001 Inf 0.270  0.286
--- 27168 rows omitted. See ?avg_predictions and ?print.marginaleffects --- 
    0.374   <0.001 272.5 0.362  0.386
    0.374   <0.001 272.5 0.362  0.386
    0.374   <0.001 272.5 0.362  0.386
    0.374   <0.001 272.5 0.362  0.386
    0.374   <0.001 272.5 0.362  0.386
Columns: rowid, estimate, p.value, s.value, conf.low, conf.high, inspection_score, Weekend, Year, NumberofLocations 
Type:  invlink(link) 

And we can estimate the average probability that inspection scores fall below 91:

avg_predictions(mod, by = "Weekend", type = "response")

 Weekend Estimate Std. Error      z Pr(>|z|)    S  2.5 % 97.5 %
   FALSE    0.273    0.00265 103.10   <0.001  Inf 0.2677  0.278
    TRUE    0.138    0.02208   6.25   <0.001 31.2 0.0948  0.181

Columns: Weekend, estimate, std.error, statistic, p.value, s.value, conf.low, conf.high 
Type:  response 

The average effect of Weekend on the probability that inspection_score falls below its 30th percentile value is:

avg_comparisons(mod, variables = "Weekend")

    Term                 Contrast Estimate Std. Error      z Pr(>|z|)   S
 Weekend mean(TRUE) - mean(FALSE)  -0.0319     0.0412 -0.773    0.439 1.2
  2.5 % 97.5 %
 -0.113 0.0489

Columns: term, contrast, estimate, std.error, statistic, p.value, s.value, conf.low, conf.high, predicted_lo, predicted_hi, predicted 
Type:  response 

Notice that this is very different from the contrast that we computed in the previous section.

Distribution regression

The “distribution regression” approach is just a repeated application of the strategy in the previous section. It allows us to measure the association between the predictor of interest and the outcome at different quantiles of the outcome. This approach is a simple and convenient alternative to quantile regression.

What makes distribution regression especially attractive is that since we can apply it by repeated application of simple regression models, it is easy to customize for specific quantities of interest or identification assumptions.

For example, we could define 4 distinct quantities of interest using marginaleffects function:

# Average predictions for Weekend=TRUE and Weekend=FALSE
# Covariates held at their subgroup-specific observed values
FUN_pred_observed <- function(x) avg_predictions(x, by = "Weekend")

# Average predictions for Weekend=TRUE and Weekend=FALSE
# Covariates held at counterfactual values, identical in both subgroups
FUN_pred_counterfactual <- function(x) avg_predictions(x, variables = "Weekend", by = "Weekend")

# Average predictions for Weekend=TRUE and Weekend=FALSE
# Covariates held at Year=2010 and NumberofLocations=30
FUN_pred_fixed <- function(x) avg_predictions(x,
  by = "Weekend",
  newdata = datagrid(Weekend = c(TRUE, FALSE), NumberofLocations = 30, Year = 2010))

# Average contrast between Weekend=TRUE and Weekend=FALSE
FUN_comp <- function(x) avg_comparisons(x, variables = "Weekend")

Now we can apply these functions to a series of regression models with quantiles of inspection_score and plot the results:

distreg <- function(FUN) {
  out <- NULL
  for (qtile in 1:9 / 10) {
    # find quantile value
    threshold <- quantile(dat$inspection_score, prob = qtile, na.rm = TRUE)
    # model with binary dependent variable
    f <- inspection_score < threshold ~ Weekend * (Year + NumberofLocations)
    model <- glm(f, data = dat, family = binomial)
    # quantity of interest
    tmp <- FUN(model) 
    # save quantile for plotting
    tmp$quantiles <- qtile
    out <- rbind(out, tmp)
  }
  if (!"Weekend" %in% colnames(out)) out[["Weekend"]] <- "Difference"
  ggplot(out, aes(x = quantiles, y = estimate, ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high, fill = Weekend)) +
    geom_ribbon(alpha = .3) +
    geom_line()
}
distreg(FUN_pred_observed)

The curves above can be interpreted as CDFs. They suggest that when we hold covariates at subgroup-specific observed values, the probability of obtaining higher scores are greater on a weekend than on a weekday. This observation holds at all nearly all quantiles of the outcome variable, except at the very top of the evaluation scale, where the day of inspection does not appear to make a difference.

Note that the CDFs do vary quite a bit depending on the quantity of interest:

distreg(FUN_pred_counterfactual)

distreg(FUN_pred_fixed)

distreg(FUN_comp)

Going further

Chernozhukov, Fernández-Val, and Melly (2013) discuss inference for distribution regression, describe a bootstrap strategy, and explain how to construct simultaneous confidence sets.

Chernozhukov, Fernandez-Val, and Galichon (2007) explain how one can rearrange estimates to ensure that the CDF is weakly increasing. (h/t Apoorva Lal.)

References

Chernozhukov, Victor, Ivan Fernandez-Val, and Alfred Galichon. 2007. “Improving Estimates of Monotone Functions by Rearrangement.” arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/ARXIV.0704.3686.
Chernozhukov, Victor, Iván Fernández-Val, and Blaise Melly. 2013. “Inference on Counterfactual Distributions.” Econometrica 81 (6): 2205–68.
Huntington-Klein, Nick. 2022. The Effect: An Introduction to Research Design and Causality. Chapman; Hall/CRC.